Morbidity handout from dr. - tell me I'm not crazy. - Mothering Forums

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#1 of 8 Old 09-10-2008, 03:42 PM - Thread Starter
 
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Analyze this for me:

"Baseline 20th Century Annual Morbidity and 1998 Provisional Morbidity From Nine Diseases with Vaccines Recommended Before 1990 for Universal Use in Children in the United States"

The doctor gave it to me today at an office visit for me when I asked if he'd be willing to see my dc even though we don't vax (after the conversation with him, I'm not taking them there).

To me, it seems misleading. But maybe it isn't. Once again I see it has something that gives all the credit in the dramatic reduction in deaths from certain diseases to vaccines while not taking any other factors into account. Is there more there that doesn't add up? I'm hoping some of you more knowledgeable mamas can help me out here. Or does it add up? Is this table factual and *not* misleading?

I doubt I'll ever discuss this handout with my doctor. I just want the info for my own knowledge. I'd love to hear your take on it.
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#2 of 8 Old 09-10-2008, 03:51 PM
 
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I think the most important part of that graph is the difference between morbidity and mortality (and I'd be surprised if the doctor emphasized that that's what the graph was). I think that's a graph of the # of people that they think got the disease early in the 20th century vs. 1998. Setting aside diseases that seem to be quite underrecognized/reported now (like pertussis), I think a lot of these diseases have decreased in incidence (like measles). But the story for mortality (people dying) seems to be a lot different, or at least a lot more nuanced, than this graph suggests. But unless he was promoting vaccination for the economic benefits (fewer work days missed, lower hospitalization costs for those who get very ill, etc) then that's not the most honest use of that graph.
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#3 of 8 Old 09-10-2008, 04:07 PM - Thread Starter
 
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So morbidity is the incidence of disease and not death? I think I knew that ... somewhere in the back of my mind. I haven't been reading about vaxes as much lately as I used to so I'm a little rusty .

Yeah, now I'm wondering what his point was in giving me that handout.

Now I want to know how many of those died or had lasting negative affects from the disease and how many had the disease and fully recovered. *That* would be informative!
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#4 of 8 Old 09-10-2008, 04:24 PM
 
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Well, at first glance it strikes me that the "baseline" data mostly represents one point in time (1900-1904 for Smallpox, or 1920-1922 for Diphtheria). That way it's impossible to see whether there was a decline of morbidity even before the vaccine licensure. The data could represent the peak incidence of the diseases, how could you tell?

Second, there is a lot of estimated, assuming and provisional going on in this chart.

Third, as PP stated, morbidity doesn't equal mortality. I personally am not fazed by the morbidity of certain diseases, for example measles.

This just off the top of my head.
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#5 of 8 Old 09-10-2008, 06:25 PM
 
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Please check out this graph: http://www.healthsentinel.com/graphs...rint_list_item
The source for their info is right on the graph if you would like to check it out.
Here is the CDC's graph: http://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vac-gen/...aseshadalready

Note that this graph is not death rate of measles. It is the incidence of infection. The death rate of measles had already declined significantly by the time of the vaccination's introduction. Likely due to the improvement and increased availability of health care. Of course my graph and the CDC's graph is different. Both accurate I believe, but are covering two different things. Also, when the CDC quotes death rates from the measles, they're quoting WORLDWIDE figures (including 3rd-world countries without access to medical care, clean water, or sewer systems). This graph shows only the US death rates.
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#6 of 8 Old 09-10-2008, 11:57 PM
 
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http://insidevaccines.com/wordpress/ has been running a series on this topic called: Where do they find these scary statistics?

Three parts have been written so far. Pretty good analysis of how they play the numbers to make it look as though vaccines saved us and continue to save us.
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#7 of 8 Old 09-11-2008, 05:02 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Deborah View Post
http://insidevaccines.com/wordpress/ has been running a series on this topic called: Where do they find these scary statistics?

Three parts have been written so far. Pretty good analysis of how they play the numbers to make it look as though vaccines saved us and continue to save us.
that

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#8 of 8 Old 09-11-2008, 05:03 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Deborah View Post
http://insidevaccines.com/wordpress/ has been running a series on this topic called: Where do they find these scary statistics?

Three parts have been written so far. Pretty good analysis of how they play the numbers to make it look as though vaccines saved us and continue to save us.
:

intactivist.gif  ribbonpb.gif RN student, bellycast.gif birth doula since 2006
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