The Maths of Conspiracy Theories - Mothering Forums

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#1 of 22 Old 01-26-2016, 10:52 PM - Thread Starter
 
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The Maths of Conspiracy Theories

Interesting (very maths based) article on how long various conspiracies could hold given the number of people who have to be involved and assuming a (very low) probability that each one would become a whistleblower.

http://journals.plos.org/plosone/art...l.pone.0147905
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#2 of 22 Old 01-26-2016, 10:56 PM - Thread Starter
 
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They calibrated on some exposed conspiracies and calculate expected lifetime for hiding serious problems with vaccination if just the CDC/WHO were involved (35 years) or including all drug manufacturers (3 years).

Nice to put numbers to the idea that hiding serious flaws with vaccination over more than a century would simply not be possible.

Hope this provides reassurance to vaccinating parents who still have a bit of a "what if the conspiracy is true" worry.
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#3 of 22 Old 01-27-2016, 11:20 AM
 
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Thank you for sharing that! It's really great seeing those numbers put into perspective. Really interesting

Sort of related. An admitted skeptic who is also a lawyer made a gofundme last year to buy a ticket for the Conspira-sea cruise and was able to raise enough money to go! Now, before someone tries to say I am name-calling, the organizers of the cruise are the ones who named it the Conspira-Sea cruise, not me.

Anyway, he is going to the conferences and is reporting everyday what he is hearing. Some of our "favorites" like Wakefield and Tenpenny are there.

Here is his report from Day 1, if anyone is interested. He is very articulate and interesting, and is in the process of writing a book.

Day two is also up, but it doesn't really deal with the vaccine issue. It's still an intriguing read, though. He is going to see Wakefield and Tenpenny a bit later in the week and I will post those here.
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#4 of 22 Old 01-27-2016, 12:49 PM
 
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I liked the article too. Reassuring for one. But the data dork in me likes to geek out on things like this too. I was more interested in the math behind the lottery than the fantasy I would win 1.3 billion
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#5 of 22 Old 01-27-2016, 01:48 PM
 
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Hi,

I'm new to the forum and a fellow data dork (I'm a biomedical researcher). Thank you for the PLoS article -- very interesting. I was curious why you didn't post this in the general vaccination forum; my naive belief is that it would be a valuable read for all parties. Again, I'm new here (but have been lurking for a while), so... :-)

On a related note, and I could google this and figure it out myself I suppose, but do support forum threads show up in google searches?
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#6 of 22 Old 01-27-2016, 07:34 PM
 
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Hi,

I'm new to the forum and a fellow data dork (I'm a biomedical researcher). Thank you for the PLoS article -- very interesting. I was curious why you didn't post this in the general vaccination forum; my naive belief is that it would be a valuable read for all parties. Again, I'm new here (but have been lurking for a while), so... :-)

On a related note, and I could google this and figure it out myself I suppose, but do support forum threads show up in google searches?
Welcome! Always nice to see new pro-vaccine members

Threads like this have a bad habit of going downhill really quickly in the general discussion forum, which is why I am guessing she put this here instead of there (@prosciencemum can correct me if I'm wrong).

I think that this support forum and the support forum for selective/delay vaccinating parents show up in google searches but the one for parents that don't vaccinate doesn't. You have to actually be a member and logged on to see that one.

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#7 of 22 Old 01-27-2016, 11:01 PM - Thread Starter
 
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Yeah - just not in the mood for discussion/debate and the nastiness which tends to come with it right now. We all need a break at times. I just feel like staying in the supportive and friendly environment of our VOS echo chamber!
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#8 of 22 Old 01-28-2016, 02:46 AM
 
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Fair enough, and thank you both for responding.

For what it's worth, I imagine there are many like me who lurk because of the valuable discussions that go on here, but stay quiet because they don't have much new or vital information to add. Besides, we don't all possess the patience and tenacity you ladies do!
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#9 of 22 Old 01-28-2016, 01:22 PM
 
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The study you cite is obviously very biased, as it assumes in it's discussion that concerns about standard vaccine use are irrational. In fact, there are many medical professionals and researchers quite educated on the subject who have serious criticisms of the standard vaccine schedules.

A second idea in response to reading the page link you sent is that there are indeed scientific studies that show sometimes overwhelming bias in drug studies that are sponsored by the pharmaceutical companies versus independently funded ones. The problem is not "conspiracy" but commercial and money bias in science, which is unfortunately ongoing in our corporate-dominated world. Not to mention many mainstream news reports about drugs that have been rammed through the approval process and later found to have many adverse side effects. The same dynamic happens with vaccines, but the sellers are even largely protected from liability in that case.

This same maths approach to conspiracy would likely have vindicated the use of bleeding as the go-to medical treatment in the 18th century!
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#10 of 22 Old 01-28-2016, 03:03 PM
 
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@kitandkaboodle and @richella , do you vaccinate on schedule?
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#11 of 22 Old 01-29-2016, 08:14 AM
 
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A kind reminder that this is the Vaccinating on Schedule forum and as such is a support forum, not a forum to argue or otherwise engage in debate about vaccines. Thank you.

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#12 of 22 Old 01-29-2016, 10:05 AM
 
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This was a good take on the article from the OP! The difference between regular or "kitchen" conspiracies (conspiracies so small that they could be pulled off by a group of people sitting in a kitchen) and "grand" conspiracies (like the vaccine conspiracy) that the author points out is an important one.

http://theness.com/neurologicablog/i...-conspiracies/

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To quickly review, grand conspiracies are problematic because they are structured in such a way that they are unfalsifiable. Any evidence against the conspiracy was planted or is part of a false-flag operation. The lack of evidence for the conspiracy is explained away as being covered up by the conspiracy itself.

When conspiracies get very large, involving large numbers of people across multiple institutions and many years or even decades of time, this raises many questions about the plausibility and logistics of orchestrating and maintaining such a conspiracy. Those questions are typically answered in two ways, by giving more power and cleverness to the people perpetrating the alleged conspiracy, and by widening and deepening the conspiracy in order to give them the power and reach they need to pull it off.

If 911 were an inside job of the Bush administration, why hasn’t a plucky reporter exposed the whole thing? Because the press are in on the conspiracy. Why didn’t the Democrats when they controlled congress or the White House launch an investigation and expose their political foes? Because both parties are secretly controlled by a shadow government. Why didn’t other countries expose the lies of the US? Because there is really a secret world government pulling all the strings.

That is exactly why there are conspiracy theories about the New World Order, the Illuminati, Reptilians, or the shadow world government – because grand conspiracies tend naturally in that direction in order to maintain the conspiracy.

I have often summarized the situation by saying that grand conspiracy theories tend to grow larger and more complex until they collapse under their own weight.
He also points out that the vaccine conspiracy would need a constant stream of people to pull off since it isn't one single event but an ongoing coverup (so the theory goes) which makes it that much less probable. Another good point!

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#13 of 22 Old 01-29-2016, 12:28 PM
 
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Originally Posted by prosciencemum View Post
Interesting (very maths based) article on how long various conspiracies could hold given the number of people who have to be involved and assuming a (very low) probability that each one would become a whistleblower.

journal.pone.0147905
Dr. David Robert Grimes's aforecited paper ("On the Viability of Conspiratorial Beliefs", PLoS One, Vol. 11, No. 1 [Jan. 26, 2016], Art. No. e0147905 [17 pp.], doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0147905) makes anti-realistic assumptions which don't apply to the real world. For instance, from his paper, p. 3: "We further assume that a leak of information from any conspirator is sufficient to expose the conspiracy and render it redundant--such leaks might be intentional (in the form of whistle-blowing or defection) or accidental (mistaken release of information)." Like the antiempirical nonscience of Anthropogenic Global Warming Theory, a fanciful model is created which has little to nothing to do with reality.

However, a conspiracy is simply when two or more people work together to do something improper to another or others (of which actions may or may not be kept secret, i.e., secrecy is not a necessary component for actions to be a conspiracy). Everyone with an average-or-higher intelligence is a conspiracy theorist.

Ultimately it's not a hermetic secrecy that governments rely on in order to maintain their power and control. What they rely on most of all is indoctrination so extensive that even if their subjects are presented with all the facts and documentation involving the government's criminal activity, said subjects will reject it because it is too horrific for them to come to terms with.

As an illustration of the previous paragraph's point, it is now known from US President Lyndon Johnson's presidential telephone recordings that the Gulf of Tonkin incident, which was used by the Johnson administration as the casus belli to fully enter the Vietnam War in 1964, was deliberately staged by President Johnson and the US government's highest military leaders as the pretext to get the US directly involved in the war. Moreover, the Johnson administration intentionally lied to the American public about the nature of the Gulf of Tonkin incident. According to the US government's casualty statistics on the Vietnam War, from 1956 through 1964, a total of 401 US military personnel were killed in Vietnam. However, a total of 58,193 US military members were killed during the entire Vietnam War, meaning that almost all of these people were killed due to this very deliberate conspiracy. In pp. 71-75 of my following article (published under my legal name--I'm male-to-female transgendered), I go over this publicly-available material, such as from the Presidential Recordings Program, Mille[]r Center of Public Affairs, University of Virginia, which come from the Lyndon Baines Johnson Library & Museum, US National Archives and Records Administration:

* James Redford, "The Physics of God and the Quantum Gravity Theory of Everything", Social Science Research Network, Sept. 10, 2012 (orig. pub. Dec. 19, 2011), doi:10.2139/ssrn.1974708.

My above article concerns physicist and mathematician Prof. Frank J. Tipler's Omega Point cosmology, which is a proof (i.e., mathematical theorem) of God's existence per the known laws of physics (viz., the Second Law of Thermodynamics, General Relativity, and Quantum Mechanics), and the Feynman-DeWitt-Weinberg quantum gravity/Standard Model Theory of Everything (TOE), which is also required by said known physical laws. The Omega Point cosmology has been published and extensively peer-reviewed in leading physics journals.

As a further instance of how it is not an air-tight seal of secrecy that governments rely on for impunity regarding their conspiracies, the below item concerns how the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC) own studies showed that there was a significant increase of autism among the vaccinated; they intentionally destroyed documents pertaining to that fact; and deliberately lied to the public about the results of their own studies:

* Ben Swann, "CDC, Vaccines and Autism", Truth in Media, Jan. 26, 2016. Includes CDC documents released by former CDC employee and whistleblower Dr. William Thompson.

Furthermore, the most egregious perpetrators of murderously brutal conspiracies are governments upon their own innocent citizens. More than six times the amount of noncombatants have been systematically murdered for purely ideological reasons by their own governments within the past century than were killed in that same time-span from wars. From 1900 to 1923, various Turkish regimes murdered from 3.5 million to over 4.3 million of its own Armenians, Greeks, Nestorians, and other Christians. The Soviet government murdered over 61 million of its own noncombatant subjects. The communist Chinese government murdered over 76 million of it own subjects. The National Socialist German government murdered some 16 million of it own subjects. And that's only a sampling of governments mass-murdering their own noncombatant subjects within the past century. (The preceding figures are from Prof. Rudolph Joseph Rummel's University of Hawaii website.)

All totaled, neither the private-sector crime which government is largely responsible for promoting and causing nor even the wars committed by governments upon the subjects of other governments come anywhere close to the crimes government is directly responsible for committing against its own citizens--certainly not in amount of numbers. Without a doubt, the most dangerous presence to ever exist throughout history has been the people's very own government. (This is also historically true for the US government, as no group has killed more US citizens than the US government: e.g., with the Civil War; etc.)

Not only were all of these government mass-slaughters conspiracies--massive conspiracies, at that--but they were conspiracies of which, e.g., the 9/11 attacks are quite piddling by comparison.

On the matter of the intensive conditioning of the public by government to recoil from conspiracy charges which inculpate it (while at the same time accepting the mendacious, anti-veridical and self-serving conspiracy theories the government promulgates), the following passage by Prof. Murray N. Rothbard is quite edifying:

""
It is also important for the State to inculcate in its subjects an aversion to any "conspiracy theory of history"; for a search for "conspiracies" means a search for motives and an attribution of responsibility for historical misdeeds. If, however, any tyranny imposed by the State, or venality, or aggressive war, was caused not by the State rulers but by mysterious and arcane "social forces," or by the imperfect state of the world or, if in some way, everyone was responsible ("We Are All Murderers," proclaims one slogan), then there is no point to the people becoming indignant or rising up against such misdeeds. Furthermore, an attack on "conspiracy theories" means that the subjects will become more gullible in believing the "general welfare" reasons that are always put forth by the State for engaging in any of its despotic actions. A "conspiracy theory" can unsettle the system by causing the public to doubt the State's ideological propaganda.
""

(From Prof. Murray N. Rothbard, "The Anatomy of the State", Rampart Journal of Individualist Thought, Vol. 1, No. 2 [Summer 1965], pp. 1-24.)

The inherent, unchangeable nature of government is colossal conspiracy. The mere fact that governments set for themselves legal double-standards is alone quite enough to logically demonstrate that governments themselves consider their own actions improper, i.e., if their same actions which they do to others are done to them they regard it as a crime. Thus, the conclusion that government itself is the largest conspiracy to ever exist or that could ever exist is logically unavoidable.
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#14 of 22 Old 01-29-2016, 12:34 PM - Thread Starter
 
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Hi Jamie. That was a long post! Do you vaccinate on schedule? This is a support forum for mothering parents who do. We don't debate here.
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Welcome! Always nice to see new pro-vaccine members

Threads like this have a bad habit of going downhill really quickly in the general discussion forum, which is why I am guessing she put this here instead of there (@prosciencemum can correct me if I'm wrong).

I think that this support forum and the support forum for selective/delay vaccinating parents show up in google searches but the one for parents that don't vaccinate doesn't. You have to actually be a member and logged on to see that one.
Lots of drama on the ConspiraSea cruise, including some speakers attacking a reporter from Jezebel, and another one of the speakers getting arrested for tax fraud after disembarking the cruise. http://www.cjnotebook.com/20008-2/

"Sean David Morton, 58, and his wife, Melissa Ann Morton, 50, were named in a 56-count superseding indictment that was returned by a grand jury on January 27.

The couple was arrested by special agents with IRS – Criminal Investigation in San Pedro Sunday morning after disembarking from a “Conspira-Sea Cruise.”

If they are convicted of the charges, Sean David Morton is facing up to 650 years in federal prison, and Melissa Morton is facing up to 625 years, according to officials."

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#16 of 22 Old 02-04-2016, 10:32 AM
 
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Why am I not at all surprised?
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#17 of 22 Old 02-04-2016, 11:24 AM
 
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So Violent Metaphors is going through the Conspira-Sea cruise by day. I'm terribly sick today, so thank you very much teacozy for showing me this rabbit hole. I needed something to do.

By the way, do you make teacozies? I made one. It was a mess, lol.
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So Violent Metaphors is going through the Conspira-Sea cruise by day. I'm terribly sick today, so thank you very much teacozy for showing me this rabbit hole. I needed something to do.

By the way, do you make teacozies? I made one. It was a mess, lol.
You should follow his twitter, too

He plans to write a bunch more about what happened in the next couple days. Can't wait! It's like a soap opera, lol.

I have some teacozies but don't make them. I wish I was crafty but alas...

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I don't Twitter. I guess I'm old because I don't get it. My teenager keeps telling me that Twitter is only for old people anyway and everyone who is with it (is that still a term?) is on Snapchat. So I'm too old for the olds. Got it.

I love this part of the article: "For right now let’s just say that his own description of himself may explain why his ideas are so outlandish: he says he operates on the high 5th-dimensional plane, and that sometimes he goes as high as the low 6th dimension, so it’s hard for the rest of us on the 3rd dimension to understand him. He explained a couple of times that he’s never worked in this dimension before this lifetime, and seemed a bit put out to be here. Thanks for slumming with us, I guess?" Ha! And there's more in the comments about how this guy believes the Federal Reserve is defunct.

Darn it! I wanted to go on this cruise just for the giggles, but I've got too many responsibilities to run off on a cruise.
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I don't Twitter. I guess I'm old because I don't get it. My teenager keeps telling me that Twitter is only for old people anyway and everyone who is with it (is that still a term?) is on Snapchat. So I'm too old for the olds. Got it.

I love this part of the article: "For right now let’s just say that his own description of himself may explain why his ideas are so outlandish: he says he operates on the high 5th-dimensional plane, and that sometimes he goes as high as the low 6th dimension, so it’s hard for the rest of us on the 3rd dimension to understand him. He explained a couple of times that he’s never worked in this dimension before this lifetime, and seemed a bit put out to be here. Thanks for slumming with us, I guess?" Ha! And there's more in the comments about how this guy believes the Federal Reserve is defunct.

Darn it! I wanted to go on this cruise just for the giggles, but I've got too many responsibilities to run off on a cruise.
I loved that part too!

This is the newest one posted today. Mostly about Wakefield (he says a lot more is coming!) http://violentmetaphors.com/2016/02/...took-the-bait/

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#21 of 22 Old 02-05-2016, 10:00 AM
 
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I've just finished the one on psuedolaw. You know, I've heard about this stuff before, like how having your name in ALL CAPS on your birth certificate is some trick the evil government uses so it can tax you, but I figured it was just all harmless conspiracy theory fodder. Somehow I have ended up surrounded by conspiracy theorists in real life. Maybe I need to start meeting people at different places, lol. But anyway, I never thought about how this information is actually hurting so many individuals. It really should be a crime to willfully mislead people.

I knew someone in real life who had their kid treated by Wakefield at his US based clinic. He medically tortures children and should be in jail. That man is just evil. It's going to be hard getting through the Wakefield page...
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#22 of 22 Old 02-06-2016, 12:26 PM - Thread Starter
 
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Wow those posts about the ConspiraSea Cruise are pretty scary. Wakefield really seems to have lost the plot - not even trying to be a credible medical professional anymore. Extraordinary.

I love Twitter by the way - such a good tool to connect with people with shared interests.
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