Mothering Forum banner

1 - 20 of 27 Posts

·
Registered
Joined
·
5,036 Posts
Discussion Starter #1 (Edited)
I came across this point in a discussion and thought it would make a good topic here.

A fairly recent study from Iceland (2013) found a huge increase in autism prevalence there. Prevalence doubled from 2005 to 2009 making their prevalence 1 in 83 in 2008 vs our 1 in 88 in 2009. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3693420/

Here is their vaccine schedule http://www.euvac.net/graphics/euvac/vaccination/iceland.html and another link http://www.landlaeknir.is/english/childhood-vaccination-programme/

Why is this interesting? This person explains it thusly:

(1) Thimerosal is not responsible for an “epidemic” of autism: The children in the study were born years after thimerosal was removed from pediatric vaccines in Iceland, yet (as in Denmark, Sweden, Canada, and California) the prevalence of ASD was much higher following the removal of thimerosal than before thimerosal was removed years earlier, and the prevalence continued to climb throughout the study period. Note that influenza vaccines, a potential source of exposure to thimerosal, are not recommended for children in Iceland.

(2) The “too-many-too-soon” and “the ever-expanding vaccine schedule” memes are also discounted: children in Iceland receive about one-half the number of vaccines administered to children in the US (not even counting the influenza vaccines that are now recommended in the US for children and pregnant women) but have essentially the same rate of ASD—and, moreover, the vaccines that are administered in Iceland are generally given a bit later than in the US.

(3) It can’t be MMR that is responsible—MMR administration remained unchanged as the prevalence climbed.

(4) It can’t be the dreaded birth dose of HepB vaccine: children in Iceland are not vaccinated against hepatitis B, on day of birth or otherwise.

Of course, the anti-vaccine arguments have been thoroughly undermined by the work of many independent research groups, but this study neatly packages the evidence and ties it up with a bow. "

So basically, despite the fact that they vaccinate on a somewhat delayed schedule compared to us (MMR at 18 months and 12 years for example), they don't give hep B at birth or any other time, they don't recommend the flu vaccine for children, don't have varicella on the recommended schedule, don't recommend the rotavirus vaccine, and got rid of all thiomerosal containing vaccines a decade and a half ago autism is *still* increasing at an alarming rate there and is comparable to the autism prevalence here.

So what do you guys think of this information?
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
18,464 Posts
Two interesting possibilities come to mind.

1) No increase in autism, all just better diagnosis.
2) There has been an increase in the use of antibiotics. I won't explain this one further, because people who know about this will know what I'm talking about and the rest of you aren't really interested anyway.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
18,464 Posts
Oh, I left off another great possibility.

There was a reclassification or a change in diagnosis or some other way in which the counting of autism was changed (just like in Denmark) and the study in question is using this shift in numbers to make a whole heap of claims about autism in Iceland which are based on manipulation of the actual rates.

If it worked in Denmark, why not export the technique?
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
5,036 Posts
Discussion Starter #4
Two interesting possibilities come to mind.

1) No increase in autism, all just better diagnosis.
Ding ding ding! We have a winner! :)
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
5,036 Posts
Discussion Starter #5 (Edited)
Oh, I left off another great possibility.

There was a reclassification or a change in diagnosis or some other way in which the counting of autism was changed (just like in Denmark) and the study in question is using this shift in numbers to make a whole heap of claims about autism in Iceland which are based on manipulation of the actual rates.

If it worked in Denmark, why not export the technique?
The full study is linked in the OP. I do not see anything about a change in how they diagnose autism in those 4 years, do you? This study only looked at a 4 year period.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
8,849 Posts
@teacozy - perhaps you missed this so I will repost it-

guess so much depends on who one wants to listen to.................ah


http://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/qa/vaxsupply.htm

How much thimerosal-free influenza vaccine is expected to be available for the 2015-16 season?

For the 2015-16 season, manufacturers will produce influenza vaccines containing thimerosal and some vaccines that do not contain thimerosal.

Approximately 116 to 118 million doses of thimerosal-free influenza vaccine will be produced for the 2015-2016 flu season.

these people didn't get the same memo - from Aug 20, 2015

http://www.fda.gov/BiologicsBloodVaccines/SafetyAvailability/VaccineSafety/UCM096228
Thimerosal has been removed from or reduced to trace amounts in all vaccines routinely recommended for children 6 years of age and younger, with the exception of inactivated influenza vaccine (see Table 1). A preservative-free version of the inactivated influenza vaccine (contains trace amounts of thimerosal) is available in limited supply at this time for use in infants, children and pregnant women. Some vaccines such as Td, which is indicated for older children (≥ 7 years of age) and adults, are also now available in formulations that are free of thimerosal or contain only trace amounts. Vaccines with trace amounts of thimerosal contain 1 microgram or less of mercury per dose.

trace must now mean FREE - who knew the definition changed?


http://www.cdc.gov/flu/protect/vaccine/vaccines.htm
So ALL vaccines are free? According to who?
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
8,849 Posts
As I asked previously and didn't get a replay from anyone about - how much "trace" does one get in just the pre-birth to 18 year?

Vaccines with trace amounts of thimerosal contain 1 microgram or less of mercury per dose.
Oh, mercury, so soooooo good for you! and mom too!
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,420 Posts
Right. Since thimerosal has not been completely removed, and there are supposedly "trace" amounts, how do we know exactly how much everyone is exposed to via vaccines. Actually, how do we even know it's "trace" and not more? Maybe many vaccines are getting more than trace. Is each dose verified that only "trace" amounts are included? We all know how easily things slip in that aren't supposed to be there through manufacturing.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
5,036 Posts
Discussion Starter #9 (Edited)

·
Registered
Joined
·
8,849 Posts
@serenbat, here you go http://www.fda.gov/BiologicsBloodVaccines/SafetyAvailability/VaccineSafety/UCM096228

Every vaccine has a thimerosal free version (not trace amounts- but completely free of thimerosal). Iceland has banned any thimerosal vaccine for a decade and a half.
Oh they must get special magical ones UNLIKE the USA - so no flu vaccine for Island since most DO have it in! No multi use ones either!

as I posted the CDC says removed........ but the FDA says trace (still in them!) :grin:

ETA- maybe they took all of CA's flu vaccine!
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
8,849 Posts
Right. Since thimerosal has not been completely removed, and there are supposedly "trace" amounts, how do we know exactly how much everyone is exposed to via vaccines. Actually, how do we even know it's "trace" and not more? Maybe many vaccines are getting more than trace. Is each dose verified that only "trace" amounts are included? We all know how easily things slip in that aren't supposed to be there through manufacturing.
See Tea's link - they get magical ones in Iceland! :dust
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
18,464 Posts
@teacozy, I'm playing a game of trying to figure out what is going on without reading the study.

Does the study actually give a rate of autism in Iceland? You've talked about an increase, but is autism in Iceland 1 in 68, which is the latest rate in the US? Or 1 in 100, which seems to be the rate being claimed in adults to show that there has always been autism at the current rate?

How about 1 in 38, which was the outcome of a study in Korea?

What is the rate in Iceland at the beginning and what is the rate at the end of this study?
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
8,821 Posts
ASD may very well be multi-factorial.

As better diagnosis and diagnostic substitution only account for part of the rise in numbers (say 50%) it makes sense that the other 50% must come from the environment -be it environment of the womb or early infancy or whatever. ASD cannot only be genetic in origin, or the numbers would not rise as exponentially as they have done. As the saying goes - there are no genetic epidemics.

So.....let's look at Iceland. Let's say that vaccines were stable in Iceland during the period studied - and that during the period studied, ASD diagnosis doubled. That does not mean vaccines never contribute to ASD, it just means that they alone were not solely responsible for the rise. I don't know anyone who thinks only vaccines have contributed to the rise in ASD. Most people (including many or most scientists) subscribe to a multi-factorial model.


Alternately, vaccine work in conjunction with something that is more common in the environment.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
739 Posts
Also not reading the full study-

Deborah: "Prevalence doubled from 2005 to 2009 making their prevalence 1 in 83 in 2008 vs our 1 in 88 in 2009."

Serenbat: "Influenza vaccine, a potential source of exposure to Thimerosal, is not recommended for children in Iceland." But I don't know what the recommendations were for pregnant women (again, not reading the study).
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
5,036 Posts
Discussion Starter #16
I have to go so just a quick response.

From the study "In a 4-year period, from the end of 2005 to the end of 2009, the prevalence of ASD in the cohort studied doubled, moving from 0.6% to 1.2%. This increase cannot be explained by immigration to Iceland, confirmed by the National Registry,22 and migration of people from one part of the country to another is irrelevant since the area studied and the whole country are the same."

Iceland only recommends the flu vaccine for adults over the age of 60, so not for pregnant women. This is a comparison of Iceland vs UK. http://vaccine-schedule.ecdc.europa.eu/Pages/Scheduler.aspx
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
243 Posts
My son has autism and he's never had an MMR. He did however have a massive reaction to two of his DTaP injections (at both 4 and 6 months) which is given at a similar time on the Icelandic schedule. He regressed shortly after.

Not everything is MMR and Hep B related. I have no idea if there was Thimerosal was in the shots he was given.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,450 Posts

·
Registered
Joined
·
103 Posts
This study doesn't mean anything to me as I don't believe vaccines are the cause I of autism. I do believe for a certain amount of people it might trigger it just like I also believe for certain people something else may trigger it- like a toxin from food or the environment for example. That doesn't make it the cause or even what I would consider the biggest concern. Not for me anyway.
I do tire of hearing about the fight of vaccines do/don't cause autism. I'm not trying to be down in your post by saying that- what you posted is relevant. I just don't think it's totally black or white yet until we do know everything. And as someone who doesn't vaccinate for a number of reasons that have nothing to do with autism I wish the world would talk less about that fight and more about other side effects and concerns. Just my two cents.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
18,464 Posts
I have to go so just a quick response.

From the study "In a 4-year period, from the end of 2005 to the end of 2009, the prevalence of ASD in the cohort studied doubled, moving from 0.6% to 1.2%. This increase cannot be explained by immigration to Iceland, confirmed by the National Registry,22 and migration of people from one part of the country to another is irrelevant since the area studied and the whole country are the same."

Iceland only recommends the flu vaccine for adults over the age of 60, so not for pregnant women. This is a comparison of Iceland vs UK. http://vaccine-schedule.ecdc.europa.eu/Pages/Scheduler.aspx
Okay, I'll go with a push in Iceland to improve diagnosis. Obviously needed, as they are still missing a significant number of cases. If the number of diagnoses in the US is to be held as the gold standard.
 
1 - 20 of 27 Posts
Top