How likely is it that I'm pregnant...

I'd say it's not very likely that you're pregnant. It's possible, but not likely at all. I personally wouldn't test unless I had some other pregnancy indicators. For the first year after I had my dd, I drove myself crazy thinking I had ovulated and conceived. I didn't end up getting ppaf until 21 months pp, yet I took tests at 4, 5, and 6 months pp. I even believed I was getting morning sickness. Maybe I'm just loony! You did have the 7 weeks pp bleeding, but as your midwife suggested, I think it's likely it was just the last of the pp blood. Still, it has happened before, so if you feel you must, TEST!

Just let you know, according to Varney's,

"There is a 2 percent pregnancy rate among women who follow [LAM's] guidelines for the first 6 months postpartum."

The guidelines as outlined by them, follow:

1--The baby must be less than 6 months old.
2--The woman has had no PP bleeding after 56 days PP.
3--Breastfeeding must be the exclusive source of nourishment for the baby.

Also according to Varney's, the typical use of condoms will result in a 14 percent pregnancy rate. The typical use of the progestin only pill will result in a 5 percent pregnancy rate.

According to that, it's very reliable, though not for you, if you have had PP bleeding past 56 days. It's not a wive's tale.

By the way, I know people who have gotten pregnant with condoms (ME!) but it doesn't mean that they are unreliable.

I was always told it's not possible..well it is!!!!! I got preggo at 3 months pp with ds number 3! And exc. bf and no paci...blah blah and all that. People still like to say that it can't happen..well there are tons of us with living kicking, smiling, baby cuddling proof! needless to say I was in complete shock but got my period 8 weeks pp. had one cycle then there was baby Taj! so yes it can happen...are you preggo? testing is a good way to find out and put your mind at ease. btw..think i'm preggo...again! but they will be 18 months apart if i am. good luck!

update

I just tested with first response and got a

yay!

I'm still just a bit worried b/c with my son I couldn't get a pos. on a HPT for 3-4 weeks after my period was supposed to start...I'll test again soon but a neg is good for now!

Well, DS#1 was conceived when I was exclusively nursing my 6month old DD... :LOL

Keep us updated as to where you keep testing negative

It is possible, that doesnt mean LAM is ineffective, just that lots of things have to happen for it to work and then of course, theres always those that are the exception (like a friend of mine who has gotten pregnant once on the pill, once with an IUD etc.)

What onlyboys said, plus:

LAM has a few other componets, the way it basically works is that every time baby latches on, hormones that suppress ovulation are released. A certain amount of said hormone must be kept circulating for it to work. In addition to exclusively bf, it has to be every four hours or less and for some reason, night latching releases way more of the hormone than day latching, so if babe is under six months and exclusivley bf but is sleeping six hours at a stretch at night, then you probally arent protected.

I stayed home with ds1 and he was nine months or so before I got my period, but with dd and ds2, I went back to work at three months and pumped on a schedule, which was of course less often than the baby would have nursed and so I got my fertility back earlier.

With dd, even though I had periods, I was charting and it still took three cycles more before my luetal phase was back to normal, you know, long enough for implantation to occur. So sometimes returning fertility can be gradual. (But I wouldnt count on that, if youre having a period, Id assume fertility) Although who knows? Ds2 is just now six months and Ive been having symptoms, but with dd I had them every month for a while as well, I think maybe all the hormone levels still readjusting? Who knows?

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That's my baby!! I'd better be more careful... I should at least shed my pregnancy weight first