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http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081201/...i_ge/recession

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WASHINGTON - The U.S. economy has been in a recession since December 2007, the National Bureau of Economic Research said Monday.

The NBER - a private, nonprofit research organization - said its group of academic economists who determine business cycles met and decided that the U.S. recession began last December.

I know that's when things started to get rough for us.
 

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It's about time we start calling a spade a spade.
Ironically this last year has been really good for our family, but we really struggled the previous 5 years.

I have seen a lot of my friends start having financial problems this past year or so
 

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No, a recession is two (or more) consecutive quarters of negative growth of the overall economy. It can't be declared officially until after that has taken place-- after the fact, basically. We had one after 9/11 but the economy "recovered" (as in, started to grow as a whole), and I can't remember but there may have been another in 2006? But otherwise we haven't been in a recession again until now.

However, an economy can be bad without being in a recession. If a few parts of the economy are doing really well while everything else goes to heck in a handbasket, it still isn't officially a recession because there is overall growth, even though the majority of the people are having a hard time to some extent. Does that make sense? You certainly could argue, though it would be an argument, that the economy has been bad since 9/11 even though we mostly have not been in a recession.
 

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Quote:

Originally Posted by lolar2 View Post
No, a recession is two (or more) consecutive quarters of negative growth of the overall economy. It can't be declared officially until after that has taken place-- after the fact, basically. We had one after 9/11 but the economy "recovered" (as in, started to grow as a whole), and I can't remember but there may have been another in 2006? But otherwise we haven't been in a recession again until now.

However, an economy can be bad without being in a recession. If a few parts of the economy are doing really well while everything else goes to heck in a handbasket, it still isn't officially a recession because there is overall growth, even though the majority of the people are having a hard time to some extent. Does that make sense? You certainly could argue, though it would be an argument, that the economy has been bad since 9/11 even though we mostly have not been in a recession.
Oh, wow! Thank you for explaining that, Lolar2. That makes a lot more sense now!

But since we are in a recession, does that mean the economy is worse than the past few years? Do you think it is (or will be) a worse recession than the one right after 9/11?

I'm kind of torn on how to feel about it. Over here (MD) things seem to be going better than most parts of the country. I think we were hit the worse right after 9/11 than we are now, but I'm hanging on bc I can tell there will be a shift in the way the economy changes and the company I work for (corporate real estate advertising-yes, I know, "yuck") is being effected.
 

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Red_Lil_Mamma View Post
Oh, wow! Thank you for explaining that, Lolar2. That makes a lot more sense now!

But since we are in a recession, does that mean the economy is worse than the past few years? Do you think it is (or will be) a worse recession than the one right after 9/11?

I'm kind of torn on how to feel about it. Over here (MD) things seem to be going better than most parts of the country. I think we were hit the worse right after 9/11 than we are now, but I'm hanging on bc I can tell there will be a shift in the way the economy changes and the company I work for (corporate real estate advertising-yes, I know, "yuck") is being effected.
It will be much worse. Some mainstream economists are calling it the second depression. Off-mainstream have been saying depression for a while.

To see why its different than a normal recession, you might enjoy taking Chris Martenson's Crash Course on economics. Its very interesting: http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse

You can also just check out the business and economy sections of NPR or the New York Times or even CNN to get a feel for how bad things are likely to get. The media can be alarmist sometimes, but there's also a great deal of factual data presented from which you can draw your own conclusions.

Incidentally, the markets are tanking today. Might set a record. Dow is down 7.30% and there's still 8 minutes to go.
 

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Red_Lil_Mamma View Post
But since we are in a recession, does that mean the economy is worse than the past few years? Do you think it is (or will be) a worse recession than the one right after 9/11?

The economy as a whole is presently worse than the past few years, but in your locality it may not be. Remember some people got and/ or stayed rich during the Great Depression! And/ or did fine, not rich and not poor. So the micro-economy of a given family, or a given city or a given business, will not necessarily reflect the national economy.

I think most economists are projecting a worse recession than the one right after 9/11, for the country as a whole (again-- not necessarily everyone will feel it as worse, nor all at the same time). I've seen speculation about its being like the US recession of the early 1980s, which apparently was quite bad (I was a small child in Hungary at the time, so I have no direct memories). If it becomes a depression, that does not make it the "second" depression because (1) there is actually no official definition of depression, although it's generally thought of as a long recession with high unemployment, and (2) we have had more than one depression in the history of the US. The Great Depression was the worst and longest, but there is a lot of room between Great Depression and ordinary recession-- there are bad recessions and mild to moderate depressions.
 

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Quote:

Originally Posted by BellinghamCrunchie View Post
It will be much worse. Some mainstream economists are calling it the second depression. Off-mainstream have been saying depression for a while.

To see why its different than a normal recession, you might enjoy taking Chris Martenson's Crash Course on economics. Its very interesting: http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse

You can also just check out the business and economy sections of NPR or the New York Times or even CNN to get a feel for how bad things are likely to get. The media can be alarmist sometimes, but there's also a great deal of factual data presented from which you can draw your own conclusions.

Incidentally, the markets are tanking today. Might set a record. Dow is down 7.30% and there's still 8 minutes to go.
Yipes! Thank you for the 411. I'm very curious about it. It has hit my family to some degree. My parents have lost nearly half of their retirement this past year, and my husband isn't doing much better that way.

Quote:

Originally Posted by lolar2 View Post
The economy as a whole is presently worse than the past few years, but in your locality it may not be. Remember some people got and/ or stayed rich during the Great Depression! And/ or did fine, not rich and not poor. So the micro-economy of a given family, or a given city or a given business, will not necessarily reflect the national economy.

I think most economists are projecting a worse recession than the one right after 9/11, for the country as a whole (again-- not necessarily everyone will feel it as worse, nor all at the same time). I've seen speculation about its being like the US recession of the early 1980s, which apparently was quite bad (I was a small child in Hungary at the time, so I have no direct memories). If it becomes a depression, that does not make it the "second" depression because (1) there is actually no official definition of depression, although it's generally thought of as a long recession with high unemployment, and (2) we have had more than one depression in the history of the US. The Great Depression was the worst and longest, but there is a lot of room between Great Depression and ordinary recession-- there are bad recessions and mild to moderate depressions.
Hmmm... I'm going to have to keep an eye on things... Our economy was very scary over here during 9/11-possibly bc we are so near DC. At the time I was working for aviation and technology publisher who had just sold their company to new owners. Within less than a year, our location whittled down to half it's size (300+ people to 150 people). It was so traumatic! People were scared, and it brought out the worst in them. It was like seeing a closely knit family tear itself apart.

Supposedly, Maryland is better off than a lot of the rest of the country, but I see things going down. I saw it happening again at the current company I work for. I was a permanent employee for over a year... But I took a paycut to contract from home to save on gas and avoid some the the politics going down. I'm worried I won't have a job to come back to after we have the baby (thank goodness for temp agents).

This year, my husband and I have been attempting to tighten our belts since we're expecting our first. We do okay financially (though I confess I have a spending problem), but it scares me what could be coming down the road in the future. There has been so much damage done in regards to rising housing costs, dying banks and so many people being in debt. So much is going to be so much change, and I believe it will get worse before better.

About a month ago, I saw a family in our neighborhood lose their home. It was terrible, bc I knew the little girl, and she was such a sweet kid. She had to lose her puppy since they moved into apartments, and being displaced meant she lost all her friends...plus she had the weight of the world on her shoulders worrying about what was going to happen. She was only 8. We live in a growing (or what was once growing) suburb so this was unexpected.
 

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It was about this time last year I started getting worried vibes from my husband. I kept asking if everything at work was okay and he assured me it was. Uh, no.
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Hubby was layed off Feb 1st. Took him 4 months to find a job and moving us over 1200 miles 9 days after I had a CS in May. Boy, that was fun!
:

So, I can see it as been going on a year now. Definately.

Oh and the company that let my husband go, went belly up this summer.
 

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This one is kinda scary... our town thrived, even during the great depression, because its built up and supported by mining. While my home business is not thriving ATM because its generally non-locals who are clients... the overall economy here isn't too bad. BUT even we are seeing layoffs all over town. If a mining town is even getting hit as well, that worries me. Fortunately our cost of living here is pretty good, you can get nice large houses for under $100k and I've even seen them go for as low as $17k. (Average is $34-$70k) So at least when people get hit here, its not exactly the same impact as the rest of the country, our costs of living are realistic.
 

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Quote:

Originally Posted by E.V. Lowi View Post
The news today is that the recession is predicted to continue through all of 09 into 2010.

I saw that, too. It would be the longest recession we've ever had. Depression, as a PP mentioned, doesn't have specific criteria associated with it, so its kinda arbitrary as to how the term is applied, but some people have referred to it as a really long recession. It could also, according to many, be considered a Depression if unemployment reaches 25% as it may have during the great depression. That 25% is uncertain because they didn't have unemployment measures in place back then like we do now - plus, even that number used different measures than we do now - for example, 25% unemployment back then included people who had been out of work for over a year. Employment rates nowadays label people who have been out of work for over a year as "disgruntled workers" and don't include them in the unemployment rate, which makes our current rate look lower than it is at around 6%. If you add back in all the people included in the 25% unemployment rate of the Great Depression to today's rate, today's unemployment rate is around 11% and growing. It could conceivably reach 25% depending on the Big 3 and other upcoming layoffs.

Anyway, here's a comparison to other recessions:

http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/20...n.graphic.html
 

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Red_Lil_Mamma View Post
About a month ago, I saw a family in our neighborhood lose their home. It was terrible, bc I knew the little girl, and she was such a sweet kid. She had to lose her puppy since they moved into apartments, and being displaced meant she lost all her friends...plus she had the weight of the world on her shoulders worrying about what was going to happen. She was only 8. We live in a growing (or what was once growing) suburb so this was unexpected.

This is so sad...
 

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Quote:

Originally Posted by BellinghamCrunchie View Post
I saw that, too. It would be the longest recession we've ever had. Depression, as a PP mentioned, doesn't have specific criteria associated with it, so its kinda arbitrary as to how the term is applied, but some people have referred to it as a really long recession. It could also, according to many, be considered a Depression if unemployment reaches 25% as it may have during the great depression. That 25% is uncertain because they didn't have unemployment measures in place back then like we do now - plus, even that number used different measures than we do now - for example, 25% unemployment back then included people who had been out of work for over a year. Employment rates nowadays label people who have been out of work for over a year as "disgruntled workers" and don't include them in the unemployment rate, which makes our current rate look lower than it is at around 6%. If you add back in all the people included in the 25% unemployment rate of the Great Depression to today's rate, today's unemployment rate is around 11% and growing. It could conceivably reach 25% depending on the Big 3 and other upcoming layoffs.

Anyway, here's a comparison to other recessions:

http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/20...n.graphic.html

Thank you for the link- very interesting. I don't think the current figures take into account how many workers are freelance, nowadays and don't show up in the unemployment statistics. Are freelancers considered disgruntled if we can't find work for a year, too?
 

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Quote:

Originally Posted by BellinghamCrunchie View Post
That 25% is uncertain because they didn't have unemployment measures in place back then like we do now - plus, even that number used different measures than we do now - for example, 25% unemployment back then included people who had been out of work for over a year. Employment rates nowadays label people who have been out of work for over a year as "disgruntled workers" and don't include them in the unemployment rate, which makes our current rate look lower than it is at around 6%. If you add back in all the people included in the 25% unemployment rate of the Great Depression to today's rate, today's unemployment rate is around 11% and growing. It could conceivably reach 25% depending on the Big 3 and other upcoming layoffs.
Both then and now, there also was some fudging as to whether some women would belong in the "unemployed," "disgruntled worker," or "housewife/ SAHM" category. No, they don't always take her word for it (nor even ask). And if they do, people aren't always 100% honest with survey-takers anyway.
 

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Quote:

Originally Posted by BellinghamCrunchie View Post
It will be much worse. Some mainstream economists are calling it the second depression. Off-mainstream have been saying depression for a while.

I looked this up today--a depression is when we have a 10% decline in the GDP. I can see us getting there, but I don't think we're there yet.
 
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