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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
<a href="http://http//news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20091204/hl_nm/us_chickenpox_vaccine" target="_blank">http://http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20...kenpox_vaccine</a><br><br><br>
Please help with the math here. I think I need more coffee and a few less children interrupting...<br><br><br>
This study says that the CP vax appears to reduce rate of shingles <span style="color:#FF0000;">IN CHILDREN</span><br><br>

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<table border="0" cellpadding="6" cellspacing="0" width="99%"><tr><td class="alt2" style="border:1px inset;"><b>A study of more than 170,000 <span style="color:#FF0000;">children 12 and under</span> who got Merck & Co Inc's chickenpox vaccine between 2002 to 2008 found only 122 cases of shingles or 1 case in 3,700 children who got the vaccine,.../B]</b></td>
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So about 27 cases in 100,000 children 12 and under then?<br><br>
But:<br><br><div style="margin:20px;margin-top:5px;">
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<table border="0" cellpadding="6" cellspacing="0" width="99%"><tr><td class="alt2" style="border:1px inset;">Before the introduction of Merck's vaccine in 1995, the rate was 30 cases per 100,000 <span style="color:#FF0000;">people</span> per year. <i>(not clear if that is general population or just children)</i><br><br>
Tseng said it is not clear if children who get the vaccine will have any protection as adults, even if they get a now-recommended booster shot.<br></td>
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<br><a href="http://http//www.oah.state.mn.us/cases/health-immun/dr-chickenpox.html" target="_blank">this</a> is from studies and estimates done in 1986 and 1995<br><br><b></b>
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<table border="0" cellpadding="6" cellspacing="0" width="99%"><tr><td class="alt2" style="border:1px inset;"><b>The chickenpox vaccine does not appear to increase the risk of shingles among children or adults vaccinated with the chickenpox vaccine.<br><br>
Studies have found the incidence of herpes zoster after natural chickenpox infection is <span style="color:#FF0000;">68 cases per 100,000 among healthy children under 20 years old</span> (Guess, 1986) and <span style="color:#FF0000;">215 cases per 100,000 for all ages</span> (Donahue, 1995).<br><br>
In contrast, the rate of shingles among children following the varicella vaccine is estimated to be <span style="color:#FF0000;">18 cases per 100,000</span>--(Dept of HHS, Epidemiology and Prevention of Vaccine-Preventable Diseases. 7th Edition, Guess, 1986)</b>.</td>
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I know we just talked about cp vax some place, but I don't think the study was in it. Either I'm not seeing this right, or I also need more coffee-<br>
Comparing the older study to the new study-more children are getting shingles, not less, so they need 2 doses. Is that what you're getting?
 

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It sounds to me like the overall rate of shingles since introduction has doubled (68 per 100,000 after vs 30 per 100,000 before)... do we even have numbers for shingles-in-children previous to the vaccine? Its certainly not something I *EVER* remmeber hearing about pre-vaccine....
 

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Discussion Starter · #4 ·
It seemed to me that cases either have remained steady or increased.<br><br>
The things that jumped out are that in this most recent study they found around<br><br>
27 cases per 100,000 in children 12 and under who had been vaccinated against CP<br><br>
but the previous figures in 1986, when CP vax was not routine were:<br><br>
estimated 18 cases per 100,000 in children under 20 who had been vaccinated<br><br>
and estimated 68 in 100,000 in healthy children under 20 who had not been vaccinated for CP<br><br>
So, I'm wondering how many cases they would have found if they continued the study for another 8 years.<br><br>
And they admitted that they were surprised by the relatively low number of shingles cases in CP vaxed kids, but of course they don't know how long the supposed protection will last.
 

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Discussion Starter · #6 ·
Herpes zoster-related hospitalizations and expenditures before and after introduction of the varicella vaccine in the United States.<br><br>
Patel MS, Gebremariam A, Davis MM.<br><br>
University of Michigan Medical School, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA.<br><br><a href="http://http//www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18999945?itool=EntrezSystem2.PEntrez.Pubmed.Pubmed_ResultsPanel.Pubmed_RVDocSum&ordinalpos=9" target="_blank">this is interesting</a>
 

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this is interesting link didn't take me anywhere in particular...
 

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try this link instead for that article: <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed?term=18999945" target="_blank">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed?term=18999945</a>
 

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<div>Originally Posted by <strong>mamadelbosque</strong> <a href="/community/forum/post/14757926"><img alt="View Post" class="inlineimg" src="/community/img/forum/go_quote.gif" style="border:0px solid;"></a></div>
<div style="font-style:italic;">do we even have numbers for shingles-in-children previous to the vaccine?</div>
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I am wondering about this also. <b>I can't ever remember hearing about shingles in children.</b> It has always been a disease of older, immune compromised people and actually it was not very common in them either since they had lasting immunity from repeat exposure.<br><br>
This vaccine clearly brought about a new problem in children. <img alt="" class="inlineimg" src="http://www.mothering.com/discussions/images/smilies/irked.gif" style="border:0px solid;" title="irked">
 

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Actually, my mother had shingles as a teenager (13? 15?) back in the late 1950s, way before they ever had the Cp vax. She had been vaxed for other things though because she grew up in eastern Europe, partly, and it was a life-saving thing there at the time.<br><br>
The reason this thread intrigues me is because Mom is now seriously considering the shingles vax. Having had shingles before (and having recently seen an even more elderly friend go through it), she'd really like to avoid getting it again and she thinks that the vax will reduce her changes.
 

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<div>Originally Posted by <strong>miriam</strong> <a href="/community/forum/post/14758657"><img alt="View Post" class="inlineimg" src="/community/img/forum/go_quote.gif" style="border:0px solid;"></a></div>
<div style="font-style:italic;">Seems to me that Merck wants to push its zostervax product.</div>
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They do. I see full page, full color ads in our local papers quite often now and don't remember seeing them before.
 

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I went to a large high school - our class alone had over 700 kids in it. Of all the kids there (figure roughly the same size so at least 2100 kids over the 3 grades) there was ONE girl who had shingles the entire time I was in school. My mom and aunt both were teachers in the district, so they always knew all the dirt on who had what and so on, and that's the only case they can recall. Everyone, from the teachers to the kid's dr was shocked a teen had come down with shingles, so even though it does happen naturally to those under 20 on occasion, it's always been considered a mid-life to senior issue afaik.
 

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<div>Originally Posted by <strong>bluets</strong> <a href="/community/forum/post/14760530"><img alt="View Post" class="inlineimg" src="/community/img/forum/go_quote.gif" style="border:0px solid;"></a></div>
<div style="font-style:italic;">try this link instead for that article: <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed?term=18999945" target="_blank">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed?term=18999945</a></div>
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Thank you, that one worked. Interesting article. Clear connection between the vaccine and an increase (in older adults) of shingles.
 

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These two studies refute the idea that unvaccinated children don't get shingles and that exposure to varicella prevents shingles in elderly.<br><br><br><a href="http://www.phac-aspc.gc.ca/publicat/ccdr-rmtc/07vol33/dr3312a-eng.php" target="_blank">http://www.phac-aspc.gc.ca/publicat/...r3312a-eng.php</a><br><a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1820439/?tool=pubmed" target="_blank">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/arti...9/?tool=pubmed</a><br><br>
I'd be interested in an analysis of these studies since they contradict the comments here. Are these studies flawed? Not representative of the literature?
 

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<div>Originally Posted by <strong>gr8blessings</strong> <a href="/community/forum/post/14762938"><img alt="View Post" class="inlineimg" src="/community/img/forum/go_quote.gif" style="border:0px solid;"></a></div>
<div style="font-style:italic;">These two studies refute the idea that unvaccinated children don't get shingles and that exposure to varicella prevents shingles in elderly.<br><br><br><a href="http://www.phac-aspc.gc.ca/publicat/ccdr-rmtc/07vol33/dr3312a-eng.php" target="_blank">http://www.phac-aspc.gc.ca/publicat/...r3312a-eng.php</a><br><a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1820439/?tool=pubmed" target="_blank">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/arti...9/?tool=pubmed</a><br><br>
I'd be interested in an analysis of these studies since they contradict the comments here. Are these studies flawed? Not representative of the literature?</div>
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Can you walk me through how a telephone survey can offer sound data?<br><br>
I have not read people in this thread saying that unvaccinated children never got shingles. I have read that some peope have found evidence that the numbers of children being diagnosed with shingles is increasing.<br><br>
The number of elderly people diagnosed with shingles is also increasing. At least that is what I could make out from the graph in figure one in the PHAC link you put up. The increase is between 2002 - 03. I wonder what the numbers look like up until 2009? Do you have any way of verifying? It would be interesting to see if the trend continued or not.
 
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