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Check out this Australian documentary if you have broadband. I don't but I hear it is excellent:<br><br><a href="http://abc.net.au/4corners/" target="_blank">http://abc.net.au/4corners/</a><br><br>
....and should give most people the willies.
 

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<img alt="" class="inlineimg" src="http://www.mothering.com/discussions/images/smilies/yikes2.gif" style="border:0px solid;" title="yikes">:
 

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Yes, both DH and I watched it. I dont' understand why the US didn't start preparing in the 70's after the crunch they had then, but alas-I'm sure it had to do with Big Oil Companies.<br><br>
I like Dr. Campbell and I love Murphy's. <img alt="" class="inlineimg" src="http://www.mothering.com/discussions/images/smilies/lol.gif" style="border:0px solid;" title="lol"> So do we sacrifice the environment more or do we let the market come to a crash? I don't think it's going to be pretty either way.<br><br>
I would like to see more economy class preparing the next generation for this. I don't think Americans know enough about this issue.<br><br>
I remember a post about this from you a few months ago.<br><br><br><span style="font-size:small;">And there's no "i" in my name. <img alt="" class="inlineimg" src="http://www.mothering.com/discussions/images/smilies/winky.gif" style="border:0px solid;" title="Wink"></span>
 

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<div>Originally Posted by <strong>Danelle78</strong></div>
<div style="font-style:italic;">I don't think Americans know enough about this issue.</div>
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We don't, and that's because people just plain old don't care. I started reading about peak oil over a year ago, and everyone I've mentioned it to (including posting about it on other forums) either blows it off completely or thinks it's a tin foil hat sort of thing. I admit I get more then a little irritated when people can't be bothered to think outside of their own little bubble for half a second. I say let the market crash, then people will be forced to deal with reality. *grumble, grumble*
 

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<a href="http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net" target="_blank">www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net</a><br><br>
pariah, i like your way of thinking <img alt="" class="inlineimg" src="http://www.mothering.com/discussions/images/smilies/wink1.gif" style="border:0px solid;" title="wink1"> i also posted about peak oil on my LJ about a year ago and no one batted an eye. people in real life just blew it off. why does everyone think they are immune from the worst case scenario? no one is immune. right now (topic of the month) dh and i are talking about what we are going to do to prepare.
 

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by the way i didn't watch the documentary because it wouldn't load properly. i have to admit i like four corners.. i'm sure it would of been a good documentary. we are an abc watching family over here.
 

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<div style="margin:20px;margin-top:5px;">
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<div>Originally Posted by <strong>Danelle78</strong></div>
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I would like to see more economy class preparing the next generation for this. I don't think Americans know enough about this issue.<br><br></div>
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I should probably stay away from peak oil discussions, because I tend to get long winded and spend way too much time. I think this is a good point, though, that Americans don't know much about the issue, but I believe it has to do more with poor science and math understanding than lack of economic understanding.<br>
I just watched the video, and listened to all four interviews. I'm pretty familiar with all of the players, and found myself nodding in agreement, or shaking my head as they were talking.<br><br>
To get a good understanding of the concepts of peak oil, what it means, and how to interpret it; it is important to know how oil is formed, how it is produced, and how reserves are defined.<br><br>
Oil and other hydrocarbons are formed biogenically (not so much from dinosaurs as from early marine life) and therefore oil isn't considered a renewable resource.<br><br>
Oil is produced by drilling into a reservoir. The term reservoir is a bit confusing, because it brings to mind for a lot of people some type of lake. It's pretty easy to figure out how much water is in a lake, you can measure and model the dimensions and calculate the volume. An oil reservoir is actually a layer of porous rock, with the voids in the rock filled with either oil, gas or water.<br><br>
To produce oil out of the reservoir once you have drilled it, two things need to happen. First, there has to be a path through the rock for the oil to flow out of the pores. In other words, the pores have to be interconnected, or else the oil is trapped. The measure of the ability of the fluid or gas to flow through the rock is the permeability of the rock. Oil is often found where a permeable rock is below an impermeable rock. The impermeable rock traps the oil below, so it stays there until it is produced. Oil is less dense than water, so without some sort of trap, it would keep migrating up to the surface.<br><br>
The second requirement is that you need some sort of mechanism to get the oil to move from the rock into the wellbore to be lifted up to the surface. When the different experts talk about the easy oil, they may be referring to the oil that can be produced based on a natural mechanism. Think of taking a very full waterbed and poking a hole in it. The water will shoot out of the hole at first. This is because the water in the waterbed was under pressure, and once the hole opened up, there was a pressure difference causing the water to flow out the hole. Once the pressure has stabilized, the water will stop shooting out of the hole, even though there will still be some water in the waterbed (just a thought experiment, don't try this at home <img alt="" class="inlineimg" src="http://www.mothering.com/discussions/images/smilies/orngbiggrin.gif" style="border:0px solid;" title="orange big grin">). For an oil well, the drilling of the hole creates a pressure difference that causes the oil to flow towards the hole. Some oil is produced just from this pressure difference. There are also other naturally occuring things that 'drive' the production of oil. However, just like with the waterbed, eventually the natural drive will fall off, leaving lots of oil still underground. Then, artifical methods are applied to get out the rest of the oil. These include things like injecting saltwater, or carbon dioxide into an adjoining well to push out the oil.<br><br>
Heavy oils, like the tar sands, invovle a bit more work to produce. (Imagine trying to squeeze tar out of a sponge). Often to produce heavy oils, steam is injected to heat the heavy oil up, making it flow better.<br><br>
These artificial methods (and there are lots more, from fracturing the reservoir to improve permeability to performing water shutoff to keep the water in the reservoir holding the pores open while allowing the oil to flow through) add to the cost of producing oil.<br><br>
All of this plays into reserve calculation. It is not a simple question to ask: How much oil is left? There is oil that is known for sure to be there, because it is in a reservoir that is known and has been partially produced. There is oil that is known for sure to be there, but we aren't able to produce it at this time. There are also places where the geological and geophysical evidence is strong for the existence of oil, but there hasn't been the exploration yet to confirm it. So, companies, governments and explorationists have used different mathematical and statistical approaches to define reserves. However, because of these varied definitions, the UN and the SPE have been working on a global standard for reporting oil reserves that might hopefully cut through the confusion.<br><br>
So, none of that really answers the question of: does peak oil exist? or the more relevant one here: does "Peak Oil" exist. I think that the answer to the first one is yes, there is little doubt that there will be/ or has been a peak to oil production. Since there is a finite amount, we will either produce all that can be produced, or we will someday stop producing oil and move to other forms of fuel. If the first happens, since future production is going to involve a higher percentage of artifical methods, the production rates are likely to decline, so the global production curve will have a 'peak'. (A Hubbert curve is a production curve with a mathematical model imposed on it and then the point at which the curve peaks is calculated from the model)<br><br>
The second question : Will "Peak Oil" happen? where "Peak Oil" can refer to any number of consequences of less oil/higher priced oil, is a lot harder to answer. First, you have to be able to get a feel for not just the point at which the global production curve begins to decline, but also the rate of the decline. This is tied up with reserve calculation, which is not an exact science, the discovery of new reserves and new types of reserves, and other new technologies. Even if the peak has already happened, the rate of the decline could mean that we are in dire straights now, or that we are good for another 10-100 years.<br><br>
Of course, whether and how "Peak Oil" happenes is related to more than just oil and gas science. It is correlated to the use and development of other fuel sources, the geopolitical situations throught the world, whether or not higher prices produce more conservation, global population and so on. However, I think it is a good idea to have some background in how oil and gas are produced and how reserves are calculated to be able to understand the debate. I've got a few links that I can dig up, if anyone is interested in a definition of the types of reserves, or a better explanation of oil production.<br><br>
Drat....I better get back to work...if this post gets eaten, I think I'll cry!
 

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A <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/content/2006/s1683060.htm" target="_blank">text transcript</a> is available for those of us with dial-up.
 

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I thought I'd bump this older discussion. I watched The End of Suburbia and I think we really have to have a big collective wakeup.
 
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