[idler]

how did those people in rural areas live, who contracted this and died...were they elderly, live in community homes, or with existing conditions, or were they healthy and young - that also has to be taken into consideration. The Nebraska link gave no indication on ages, health, or living conditions

When I was searching for Nebraska stats, several articles like this one came up reporting that the majority of deaths were in nursing homes. This article is from early May, but my guess is that it's still the case. As far as I can tell, the one thing that hasn't changed in the COVID narrative, even though it isn't always in the headlines, is that those most at risk of dying from this illness are the elderly and people with other conditions -- and also that the vast majority of people who get it recover without ever being hospitalized, which is NEVER in the headlines.

"Majority of coronavirus deaths in Nebraska at nursing homes"
https://apnews.com/b1fceb36cc58a2e68826e0344d33b9a5

 

[Deborah]

Probably as good as a coin toss. Even a papaya tested positive. :grin:

I'm feeling more like a mango...:smile:

 

[Deborah]

This ProPublica page has the stay-at-home status of each state (including whether there was a stay-at-home order and how long it has been in place or how long it has been lifted). It's geared toward stats on new cases, so it doesn't list total number of cases or deaths, but I looked up the specific info for Iowa and Nebraska, neither of which had any stay-at-home order, and both of which are obviously largely rural. Iowa has had 26,338 cases (positive tests) and 687 deaths; Nebraska has had 17,957 cases and 249 deaths.

Like all of the coronavirus statistics, this information is difficult to interpret because, for example, ProPublica lists Utah as having had no stay-at-home order. I live in Utah, and while that is technically true, we did have a stay-at-home "directive", and people did stay home. There is also a phased, color-coded plan for "reopening", which is now underway. Utah has had 17,906 cases and 158 deaths.

Iowa: http://https://coronavirus.iowa.gov
Nebraska: https://nebraska.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/4213f719a45647bc873ffb58783ffef3
Utah: https://coronavirus.utah.gov/case-counts

ProPublica: https://projects.propublica.org/reopening-america/

Thanks for finding and interpreting that info. Very interesting and fits with what I've seen just randomly hopping around.



I'm wondering if one of the reasons for the consistently muddled info is that, despite the flu vaccine, large numbers of elderly people in care homes die EVERY WINTER.

 

[Deborah]

Thanks for finding and interpreting that info. Very interesting and fits with what I've seen just randomly hopping around.



I'm wondering if one of the reasons for the consistently muddled info is that, despite the flu vaccine, large numbers of elderly people in care homes die EVERY WINTER.

Went looking for death rates among the elderly. This info is interesting, especially given the high death rate in Italy due to air pollution and cigarette smoking in connection to Covid.

One important trend is the reduction in smoking. A lifetime of
smoking greatly reduces old-age survival. In 1970, 45 percent of
the population aged 25 to 44 smoked (this is the population aged
67 to 86 in 2012) (American Lung Association, 2011). In 2011,
only 22.1 percent of those aged 25 to 44 smoked (this will be the
population aged 64 to 83 in 2050) (Centers for Disease Control
and Prevention, 2012). Reduction in smoking at younger ages is
expected to improve survivorship for these cohorts when they
reach the older ages.
Another health-related condition expected to influence future
trends in survivorship is obesity. The incidence of obesity increased
dramatically between 1980 and 2008, doubling for adults and
tripling for children (National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention
and Health Promotion, 2011). According to the Centers for Disease
Control, “Obesity increases the risk of a number of health conditions
including hypertension, adverse lipid concentrations, and
type 2 diabetes” (Ogden et al., 2012:1). The direct effect of obesity
on survival is less than that for smoking, and there is evidence
that the trend is leveling off. The longer-term implications are yet
unknown, but could dampen continued improvements in survivorship
in future years.

https://www.census.gov/prod/2014pubs/p25-1140.pdf

 

[emmy526]

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0965-6

Clinical and immunological assessment of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections



How are we going to create a vaccine for a virus we don't know much about?
https://arstechnica.com/science/202...st-2-3-months-after-infection-study-suggests/

When the researchers looked at antibody levels again eight weeks after each case was discharged from the hospital, they found that both groups had significant declines in antibodies. In the asymptomatic group, 40 percent had no detectable levels of one type of antibody—IgG—while 13 percent of symptomatic cases had no detectable levels. For comparison, in people who had been infected with SARS-CoV-2's relative, SARS-CoV (the coronavirus that causes SARS), researchers have seen sustained IgG levels for more than 2 years."

 

[Deborah]

Another look at the topic of the elderly and death rates. This article claims that chronic diseases have mostly substituted for infectious illnesses as a cause of death in the elderly, but they do mention influenza and pneumonia as causes.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/ahcd/agingtrends/01death.pdf

Elderly decedents frequently suffer from more than one life-threatening condition at the time
of death. It is sometimes difficult for the attending physician or other official charged with
filling out the death certificate to identify the initiating cause among several grave conditions.
While a single cause, known as the underlying cause of death, is used in nearly all
statistical reporting systems, the death certificate also allows for the listing of other causes in
addition to a single underlying cause—up to 20 diseases and conditions.

Yes, but all of those elderly people died of Covid. Just Covid.

Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome, and nephrosis ranks between sixth and tenth as a cause of
death. It is a relatively more common cause of death among black than among white persons.

Interesting in light of Suzanne Humphries finding that kidney disease follows upon influenza vaccination for some people.

Older adults are vulnerable to common infectious diseases
Although infectious diseases are no longer the most common causes of death, pneumonia, influenza,
and septicemia remain among the top 10 causes of death. They were responsible for 5.5
percent or 95,640 deaths of people 65 years of age and older in 1997. However, the role infectious
diseases play in declining health and mortality is not fully apparent. This is because several
other medical conditions caused by infectious diseases, such as endocarditis and rheumatic heart
disease, are classified as diseases of the heart despite their infectious origins. A study of deaths
attributed to diseases known to be caused by infectious organisms showed a 25-percent increase
in mortality between 1980 and 1992 for persons 65 years of age and older.9
The combined death rate from pneumonia and influenza has increased in recent years for all agerace-
sex groups. This increase may be partly due to the higher tendency by medical certifiers to
record pneumonia as the underlying cause of death with advancing age. But it also may reflect an
increase in the severity of pneumonia, attributed to changes in the population at risk of contracting
pneumonia or other respiratory pathogens, the increasing occurrence of drug-resistant
microorganisms, and the detection of new respiratory infections.10

So, I''d say the answer is yes, every winter many thousands of elderly people in care homes will die if influenza and pneumonia.

 

[Deborah]

Interesting discussion of schools reopening in Canada. https://childrenshealthdefense.org/...-normal-in-the-fall-a-scientists-perspective/

The science does not support the need for reducing class sizes, social distancing in classrooms or at recess, or the wearing of masks or other PPE. It is deeply concerning that the federal and provincial governments, as well as public health authorities appear not to have adjusted their COVID-19 strategies to take account of the large and growing body of scientific data that shows that COVID-19 is not the deadly threat that was originally thought.

 

[kathymuggle]

I was intrigued to read about the over-sanitization of places and objects as a health risk.

My sisters work in a large daycare. Their cleaning protocols are insane (sometimes literally - floors are to be washed 3 times a day. ummm...No one other the the kids and staff get into or out of the building, and everyone is in by a certain time...what exactly is the point in 3 floor washing - there are no added germs once everyone is in!) In any event, I digress. They had an odd smell in the daycare a few days ago and the fire department came to check it out. They asked if there was a pool onsite as all they could smell was chlorine. Yeah.

Sometimes the things they do to keep everyone "safe" are the things i worry about the most.

 

[Deborah]

I was intrigued to read about the over-sanitization of places and objects as a health risk.

My sisters work in a large daycare. Their cleaning protocols are insane (sometimes literally - floors are to be washed 3 times a day. ummm...No one other the the kids and staff get into or out of the building, and everyone is in by a certain time...what exactly is the point in 3 floor washing - there are no added germs once everyone is in!) In any event, I digress. They had an odd smell in the daycare a few days ago and the fire department came to check it out. They asked if there was a pool onsite as all they could smell was chlorine. Yeah.

Sometimes the things they do to keep everyone "safe" are the things i worry about the most.

Especially as there isn't evidence that it is spread on surfaces anyway.

 

[applejuice]

My credit union has someone constantly mopping the floors. Constantly! There are clear plastic dividers all over the place (reminds me of going to a hockey game), everyone is wearing gloves, masks, and another someone is constantly wiping the counters with alcohol. My ear is plugged up currently and I can't hear anything anyone is saying and I cannot get a clue from reading their lips because, ... I cannot see their lips!

Where is that video of Carlin saying he gave his immune system a boost as a child by swimming in raw sewage?

 

[kathymuggle]

Interesting discussion of schools reopening in Canada. https://childrenshealthdefense.org/...-normal-in-the-fall-a-scientists-perspective/

As an aside, SickKids, which has a lot of clout (largest Children's Hospital in Canada, I think) has come out with guidelines and they are pretty good.
http://www.sickkids.ca/PDFs/About-S...mmendations-for-School-Reopening-SickKids.pdf

Snippets include:

While school closures may have been reasonable as part of the early pandemic response, current evidence and experience support the concept that children can return to school in a manner that maximizes children’s health and minimizes risks from a Public Health perspective.1

Guidance statement(s):
• Non-medical and medical face masks are not required or recommended for children returning to school.

Smaller class sizes, if feasible, will aid in physical distancing. However, the daily school schedule routine should not be disrupted to accommodate smaller classes for physical distancing.

• Schools should endeavor to offer as many of their usual clubs and activities as possible.

________________


There is more - more emphasis on cleaning/sanitation, spacing things out if possible, cohorting if possible, etc, etc.

Is the craziness perhaps ending?

 

[Deborah]

My credit union has someone constantly mopping the floors. Constantly! There are clear plastic dividers all over the place (reminds me of going to a hockey game), everyone is wearing gloves, masks, and another someone is constantly wiping the counters with alcohol. My ear is plugged up currently and I can't hear anything anyone is saying and I cannot get a clue from reading their lips because, ... I cannot see their lips!

Where is that video of Carlin saying he gave his immune system a boost as a child by swimming in raw sewage?

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=VDX0O3RuwiI

I used a restroom at one of the places where I work part-time and someone had just mopped the floor. Ugh!

 

[Deborah]

As an aside, SickKids, which has a lot of clout (largest Children's Hospital in Canada, I think) has come out with guideline and they are pretty good.
http://www.sickkids.ca/PDFs/About-S...mmendations-for-School-Reopening-SickKids.pdf

While school closures may have been reasonable as part of the early pandemic response, current evidence and experience support the concept that children can return to school in a manner that maximizes children’s health and minimizes risks from a Public Health perspective.1

Guidance statement(s):
• Non-medical and medical face masks are not required or recommended for children returning to school.

Smaller class sizes, if feasible, will aid in physical distancing. However, the daily school schedule routine should not be disrupted to accommodate smaller classes for physical distancing.

• Schools should endeavor to offer as many of their usual clubs and activities as possible.

________________


There is more - more emphasis on cleaning/sanitation, spacing things out if possible, cohorting if possible, etc, etc. but I am generally speaking on board.

is the craziness perhaps ending?

I was on a meeting tonight where they were talking about a school re-opening. The opening regulations are stiff, but there are rumors that they are hoping to start loosening the rules soon. I sure hope so.

 

[applejuice]

I used a restroom at one of the places where I work part-time and someone had just mopped the floor. Ugh!

I am sure employees are allowed to use restrooms in public places because CAL-OSHA would require it, but the public is not allowed to use any restrooms in places I have ventured out to in the last month. So awful!

 

[Deborah]

I am sure employees are allowed to use restrooms in public places because CAL-OSHA would require it, but the public is not allowed to use any restrooms in places I have ventured out to in the last month. So awful!

I don't think that is a directive here. We are not worrying about people using our restroom. Although we have a lot fewer people coming through so a lot fewer requests.

 

[Deborah]

Weirder and weirder. I'm reading the same data, but not getting the same info. https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-ex...d-19-there-is-a-growing-consensus-11592317650

It’s not common to contract Covid-19 from a contaminated surface, scientists say. And fleeting encounters with people outdoors are unlikely to spread the coronavirus.
Instead, the major culprit is close-up, person-to-person interactions for extended periods. Crowded events, poorly ventilated areas and places where people are talking loudly—or singing, in one famous case—maximize the risk.
These emerging findings are helping businesses and governments devise reopening strategies to protect public health while getting economies going again. That includes tactics like installing plexiglass barriers, requiring people to wear masks in stores and other venues, using good ventilation systems and keeping windows open when possible.

So why in the world do we need plexiglass? If fleeting encounters don't do it? Why masks? If fleeting encounters don't do it? Why all that sanitizing if surfaces aren't much of a risk?

 

[kathymuggle]

Weirder and weirder. I'm reading the same data, but not getting the same info. https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-ex...d-19-there-is-a-growing-consensus-11592317650



So why in the world do we need plexiglass? If fleeting encounters don't do it? Why masks? If fleeting encounters don't do it? Why all that sanitizing if surfaces aren't much of a risk?

Fear, perception and initial lack of knowledge.

 

[idler]

Fear, perception and initial lack of knowledge.

I am very concerned (convinced, really) that these things, rather than knowledge, will continue to drive practices. Once people have been whipped into a frenzy of fear around this virus, how can data and evidence possibly tamp it down? Especially when the media narrative remains unchanged.

I am especially concerned about how this will affect schools reopening. The document you posted from SickKids is great, and I love that it stresses the kinds of things that should not be done if they require disrupting the daily school routine (because the daily school routine is important!). But I don't think that reasonable considerations like that are driving either the media narrative or people's perceptions. My own school district keeps sending out surveys, which tells me that they are not going to make decisions based on best practices (for the whole child, not just COVID), evidence, or facts; rather, they are trying to gauge what parents want and will tolerate. I'm sure that many parents are still terrified and unwilling to put themselves or their children "at risk". Well, my kid is at risk for a number of other problems if she's not able to start 7th grade in the fall. She is already suffering. I am tired of people acting like children's longterm mental and physical health is just a small price to pay to save us all from COVID (and measles, chicken pox, etc.).

 

[kathymuggle]

I am going to add communication/messaging to the list of reasons why we have persisted use of plexiglass, hyper cleaning, insistence on masks in grocery stores etc when the science is not pointing to needing them.

There have been a lot of communication fumbles wrt to COVID and messaging from the powers that be. Masks are a prime example - first we were told they were not necessary, then we were told they were, sort of, in these circumstances...or maybe in all circumstances. The whole thing is a head scratcher. What is and isn't open, particularly around parks and stuff has been confusing in this area. Last week the province of Quebec said social distancing for kids could be reduced to one meter. Huh? If the virus can spread up to 2 meters, then why can kids be 1 meter apart? https://nationalpost.com/pmn/news-p...gs-up-to-50-people-reduce-distancing-for-kids

The result of tinkering around with rules is that people either do not trust the government or they are confused.

Ultimately, I do think the governments do change protocols as new info becomes available. I think there is evidence of that. I do not think they do so lightly, however, as it comes with the above ramifications. I doubt they will change the plexiglass rule as there is no point - it literally is a "no harm no foul" situation. I doubt they will change sanitizing even though I think the excessive bleach use is an issue. I know they do not, and it definitely gives off the perception of "safe and clean."

 

[emmy526]

Where were the news reports of 20million having the virus but no one knew?? SMH

"Antibody tests show more than 20 million people have been infected with coronavirus, most of them without knowing it, said Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention."


https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/26/health/us-coronavirus-friday/index.html