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https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/follow-science-12-million-covid-deaths-edition


Some of the complexities of the numbers around Covid.
If reducing fatalities is the goal, there is a much easier way to do that

Sadly, a lot of people die every day, and I’m sure you’ve seen memes on social media on how many more people die from other causes like Tuberculosis (1.4M in 2019) than COVID-19.
In the US, where the COVID death toll currently sits at 225K, it is estimated that medical malpractice kills 250K Americans a year.
But an even bigger number, according to the WHO, is that alcohol abuse kills 3 million people annually, and that number will surely go even higher this year given the massive spike in mental illness, domestic violence, child abuse, depression and suicide caused by the lockdowns.
If this is about saving lives, we could literally bring those alcohol related deaths to zero, turning it off like the flick of a switch by instituting a global ban on alcohol. We could do it tomorrow. Should we? The lives we save may include your own.
In fact if we banned alcohol then we could let Coronavirus run and still be ahead nearly 2M preventable deaths annually, provided COVID-19 kept going with the same intensity it was going in March and April, which it clearly isn’t (see below).
Of course, nobody would seriously entertain that, and they could probably articulate some decent logic around why we shouldn’t.
But they may dismiss it without considering how closely the lockdown approach toward reducing COVID fatalities is analogous to a worldwide ban on alcohol to eliminate alcohol related deaths would be. Especially since we also know that a large portion of coronavirus fatalities die with COVID-19 and numerous other comorbidities* than of it (however, see my footnote on that at the end of this post).
In that sense, alcohol related carnage is very similar. Few alcoholics drink themselves to death outright. Comparatively more kill themselves (and others) in car accidents, commit suicide, or generally wreck their livers, hearts, kidneys, brains or generally run themselves down so low nearly anything else will finish them off.
Second Wave Hysteria

Case counts are clearly rising again globally, that much is true and we have oodles of data to track it. With it, there come fears of the dreaded “Second Wave” of fatalities.
In the often cited Spanish Flu of 1918, the bulk of the fatalities came in the second wave. However, the Spanish Flu was a very different pandemic than the one we have today. That one attacked people right in the early years of the prime-of-life age curve:

Source: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3734171/
Scientists believe the nature of that strain caused “cytokine storms”, the phenomenon where the immune system overreacts and attacks itself. In a perverse twist of fate, this made the population with the strongest immune systems more vulnerable to the flu.
Contrast with COVID-19 where nobody disputes that the most vulnerable members of the population are the elderly and those with underlying medical conditions that render them immuno-compromised. In this sense, comparing 1918 to COVID-19 is not accurate or useful.
 

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I tried looking up historical lengths of pandemics...and ha! Flus are one thing, other types of viruses and/or bacteria are another, and any hope of mine of being able to say "it looks like historically most pandemics of this sort lasted xyz amount of time" is a bust. Really, I think COVID is here to stay, although not at these levels.

I did find an interesting bit on the difference between the social end of pandemics and the medical end. The two are not the same thing.

"When will the Covid-19 pandemic end? And how?

According to historians, pandemics typically have two types of endings: the medical, which occurs when the incidence and death rates plummet, and the social, when the epidemic of fear about the disease wanes.

“When people ask, ‘When will this end?,’ they are asking about the social ending,” said Dr. Jeremy Greene, a historian of medicine at Johns Hopkins."
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/10/health/coronavirus-plague-pandemic-history.html


____________

Today is Halloween. The nonsense and politics around COVID and Halloween have been astounding. I am COVID fatigued. On a personal note, I am celebrating halloween. We will place candy on a table outside and have decorated slightly. We are not usually busy at all on halloween, but if you are going out on Halloween, we will be there for you!
 

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My daughter's first Halloween was after the Tylenol Scare of 1981. No one was putting candy out that year. It seems that people can be controlled by fear and the government knows it.
 
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Our very local newspaper accidentally got it right. The publisher said something like this:
Due to Covid anything which could possibly be fun has been cancelled.
 

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Discussion Starter #532
anyone noticing all the new ads out now for well child visits, and not delaying them any longer, ESPECIALLY since vaccines are overdue....smh...i see the HPV being pushed for tweens pretty hard...as well as the flu shot of course.
 

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So...yeah...

http://www.aylmer.ca/uploads/PublicNotices/DeclarationofEmergencyStatement.pdf

"The Town of Aylmer has declared a state of emergency ahead of a second anti-masking rally planned for Saturday.

Aylmer police said in a tweet that the declaration was a direct response to the Freedom March planned for the afternoon of Nov. 7."

This is hysterical. I have never heard of Aylmer Ontario (and I live in Ontario) turns out it has about 7500 and is pretty rural. I cannot imagine the need for this.

We have had massive BLM protests in this province and in nearby Montreal and no state of emergencies were declared over the protests as far as I know...but you know, anti-maskers gathering in small numbers (in all probability) in rural ON - horror!
 

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I recently thought of this, in light of the supposed 'asymptomatic' covid folks going around infecting other people:

http://www.bonkersinstitute.org/asymptomatic.html
Only a trained medical professional can properly identify the subtle signs of asymptomatic depression:
* rosy cheeks;
* sparkling eyes;
* sunny disposition;
Advancing in the direction of bona fide medical science since last Tuesday.
 

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I think all these shoulder shrugs are a good sign. Herd immunity could actually happen. https://apnews.com/article/iowa-sou...north-dakota-bf7197b284401dea8b779cfa764dfab2


Jenna Lovaas, public health director of Jones County, Iowa, said even now that her rural county has the state’s highest virus rate, people have opted not to make any changes, such as protecting themselves and others by wearing masks.
“They don’t think it’s real,” she said. “They don’t think it’s going to be that bad or they just don’t want to wear a mask because we’ve made it a whole political thing at this point.”
In part, though, some of those views are hard to fight because of the reality that many people have no symptoms, and most of those who do get sick recover quickly. And treatment advances mean that those who become seriously ill are less likely to die from the virus than when it first emerged in the spring. Even though cases and the death toll are rising, infectious disease experts note that death rates appear to be falling.
 
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more testing, more cases. but not necessarily more people who actually get sick. the problem has always been how to protect people who cannot cope with this disease - and isolation, by and large, has not protected the vulnerable. note the large numbers of sick and dying people in nursing homes.



I call politics a failure.
 

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Don't forget fear is a huge factor in driving people to do what they're doing in the USA- fear based on hearsay, not facts

i'm thinking the Taiwan media is nothing like ours->> perpetuating stories of misery/falsehoods/etc
 

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